Sunday, April 23, 2017

Climate Change Trends

Yesterday was Earth Day, and many many folks went out and Marched for Science.  The photos show those folks mostly having a great time, a very good thing.  We sent two marchers, both Spice and Smidgen marched in St Paul; the planners were expecting around 6,000 people; the cops later estimated over 10,000.  Fox News is reporting 50,000.  Interesting.

I was, of course, doing my bit; holding down my keyboard.  Oh, and the farm.  Old-timers here know I comment regularly on the NYT, as Greenpa; and WaPo (under an older name I'm too lazy to change).  Sometimes folks like what I have to say.  And that is the case right at the moment.

The New York Times Magazine is currently running their Climate Issue.  That is a section you can reach without hitting a paywall; you can see what they're up to; what the NYT temperament is at the moment.  If you're not familiar, they will let you read 10 articles a month free.

On that page you will find  an article on How A Warming Planet Drives Human Migration. Whole populations attempting to "migrate" has been a major topic in the past couple years.  Is climate change the cause? Almost entirely.

At the moment, my comment is the #1 Reader Pick.  (If you should want to add your vote, I would not object.).  I'm getting some good comments, too - even no trolls, yet!

I'm going to put the text of that comment here; since I know links and access are iffy these days:


"I was a speaker at the climate change conferences in 1988 (DC) and 1989 (Cairo) - and can tell you that all of this was fully predicted by us, back then. Also water wars and the rise of demagogues and authoritarian governments.

"It was not only predictable; we predicted it. A fantasy scientists often adhere to is that if they can explain the situation clearly, then humanity will of course respond with wise action. Ah, the irony.

"It is NOT that we do not have persons provably able to give good advice and predictions; it is that world-wide, our joint decision making processes are universally broken. We do not have one government of the planet capable of taking significant action.

"We know what to do. We just can't do it. That - is the problem."


I did, after Sandy, say bluntly "WE TOLD YOU SO."  This is kind of the same thing; but a bit more polite (I believe in polite - first.  Rude when necessary.)  Interesting that my rude comment on Justin Gillis' "oh we can't be sure" article - and all other comments, many rude - have been deleted from the archives.  But the story is still here.

Interesting today that most of the NYT readers looking at that article have chosen the I -told-you-so viewpoint to recommend.  It's not an optimistic one.  Which may be an optimistic observation, actually; if we're ever going to get off our collective butts and take serious action, the first thing that has to happen is we have to lose the complacent notion that somebody else will fix this.

Nobody else is going to fix this; government "policy" approaches are crippled, world-wide, and recent elections illustrate how easy it is for policy to be derailed by the next swing of the Perpetual Political Pendulum.  The PPP.  (Polka Dot Gallows humor...)

The March For Science showed there are still an abundance of sane and passionate humans out there. Keep that in mind.  Join them; and remember your Newtonian Physics: momentum - takes Work to stop or alter.

Keep the momentum.  Add to it.  Act.  Because, as one of the many great sign comments from yesterday's march has it:




Tuesday, February 7, 2017

Jet streams-

A bunch of great comments on the past post- thanks!  The one from KnuttyKnitter- aka Viv in NZ, turned into this post when I started trying to just make a quick comment back.  New Zealand weather is getting goofy, too.

Viv  - I'm a jet stream freak; have been studying it for decades, literally.  Part of being an ecologist, for me; should any ecologist attempt to understand weather and climate?  Sure.  And we've known for a long time that fluctuations in the jet streams drive a whole lot of weather.

My favorite comprehensible model is here.   The "streams" have not ever been what we think of looking at a river; they come, go, pause, start.  But.  The "norm"; possibly now gone forever, is that both hemispheres have (had) two jet streams; the polar jet, and the subtropical jet.  In both hemispheres, the streams blow from west to east.

That normal pattern is now hard to even see in that model.  Two streams?  Where?  Looks like a mess, right?  You did used to be able to see the "2 streams" clearly and consistently, fluctuations notwithstanding.

Up until 5 or 6 years ago, it was almost unheard of for - the polar jet, and the subtropical jet to MEET. They pretty much stayed in their own backyards.  But a few years back it started becoming more and more common for the northern hemisphere streams to shift so far they would actually bump into each other.  Then - they started not only meeting - but - for long distances and long periods of time; they would MERGE - leaving great chunks of the northern hemisphere with only ONE jet stream.

That does crazy things to weather, and was a primary driver in the years long California drought (now over).  Meterologists have been privately goggling at each other and muttering "Merge??  They merged??  WTF!!??"

Viv - here's the specific thing- until just the past 6 months or so; the southern hemisphere jet streams were still behaving "normally" - 2 jets, one polar, one subtropical.  But.  If you look at the model; they are now starting to form huge loops - and meet - and merge.  You are not likely to hear that from any official meteorology expert any time soon; the phenomenon is too new (though it's been consistent for 6 months now) - and they have reputations to protect.  But.  I've been watching; closely.  The consistency, and the parallel with the process that has gone on for years now in the northerns hemisphere are significant.

Yes, it's going to mess up the weather, and normal seasonal expectations, all over the planet.  And for the most part it is outside all the training and expectations of the best meteorologists- just very hard to guess what comes next.  Best bets, based on the past years in the northern hemisphere; droughts, floods, bigger and more frequent storms.

One of the things we do know about jet streams is - we don't know ANYTHING about jet streams.  We know this from?  Space exploration.  Below is the polar jet stream on - Saturn; viewed from directly about Saturn's north pole.  As reported by Voyager in 1981-82; and Cassini in 2006-2009.  Courtesy of NASA.


It forms a hexagon.  ???!!!  And - in all the time we've known about it, and watched it - it has been STABLE.  It doesn't change.  No loops up, or down.  When the first images from Cassini came in, the exo-meteorologists were stunned - no one had expected that weird hexagon to persist over 25 years.

What if- Earth's jet streams suddenly hit whatever conditions are required for our jet streams to drop into this kind of stable configuration?  Could that happen?

We don't have a clue.  The one thing we know for sure- weather and climate would be hugely, drastically, affected.  And would stay in whatever pattern showed up.  

Seriously.  Buckle up.  If you haven't already started.




Sunday, January 22, 2017

Add to our climate change list...


As you know, we live off the grid; have for nearly 40 years now.  Our energy consumption, capture, and storage protocols were based on "normal" weather; normal winter and summer sun and wind.

But- we don't have them any more.  Typically here in SE Minnesota, late January and early February are brilliantly sunny.  Cold; but totally clear skies.  That works great for photovoltaic power, in fact; yes, the days are shorter, but the cold dramatically increases the panels' output; for every 3°C colder than the specified temp; which is around +27°C; the panels put out 1% more power than specs.  So- when it's -10°F; e.g. -23°C; which used to be very common week long temperatures here; the panels are putting out around 17% more power.  That's a lot.

The past several years though have shown a new January/February pattern - which does not include sunny days.  Warm (for January in Minnesota) - it hasn't been below freezing for a week now- and...


This is what our world has looked like, for days, and days, and days....... we are now living in Niflheim; one of the realms from Norse Mythology - "Mist World".  Primordial snow and ice and damp- and no sun.  Yup.  Here we are.  Well, plus we have primordial mud, at 2 PM daily.

Besides being depressing, just a bit, our energy processes are messed up, good.  No, solar panels do not put out significant power in this kind of fog/cloud cover.  So- we are forced to burn gasoline to run our backup generators, which we have for the supposedly occasional week with no sun.  Those sunless weeks happened every year - once, or twice.  Now- we have them every other week.  It seems. 

Which creates another "not in the plans" problem- we own 4 backup generators; for 3 locations and a spare...  3 out of 4 are now dead; from being run so constantly; far more than designed for.  We now spend an hour or so a day running the one generator around (in the slush no vehicle can move through) from one site to another; and wondering if we have enough gas...

And if you are using solar heat - same thing; your building will not be getting warm today.

These impacts are here, now.  Affecting everyone.  But it's like "being nibbled to death by ducks" - it kind of seems harmless; until you die.

It's not harmless, though; it's cumulative, and weakens everything we depend on.

Tuesday, January 10, 2017

Cheer up, Brian! Things could be worse! (#3)


That's the line from the final scene of Monty Python's "The Life of Brian".  As they are being crucified.

I've been quiet here for a good while, because I was trying to only post positive stuff.  There really hasn't been much, has there?

So. Moving right along.  Going with the flow.  Bad news, it is.

Spice asked me this morning when climate change was really going to hit.  The answer, of course, is; it already has.  Yes, it really is too late to take any actions that will prevent truly major climate disruptions, that will affect humans around the world - drastically.

“ 'We have not arrived in our climate of the future, but we have certainly left our climate of the past,' said Deke Arndt, chief of the National Centers’ climate monitoring branch. "  That's from an article in Bloomberg a couple days ago,  "Climate Disasters Cost U.S. $46 Billion as Flooding Leads List"

Floods?  What floods?  The news is all full of - you know what; and Meryl Streep.  Not about the current disaster in Thailand, which is wrecking their tourist income again and has 700,000 people homeless;  nor about the current "atmospheric river" bringing huge floods and storms to California; nor the highly unusual heavy flooding in - Nevada??  They're sandbagging in Reno and Sparks- and worried the floods could get into downtown Reno... ?

News?  Nah.  Happens all the time.  Going to get worse; boring news now.

And here in the Big Woods- 3 nights ago, our thermometer registered -16°F; "sixteen below zero".  This morning; it was +34°F - and - first raining (on a landscape that was at 16 below = bad ice on everything) - then; we got a lovely, typical snow.  Typical for - mid April.  In early January.  (Sorry about the crummy video quality here- trying to keep my bandwidth consumption down...)

video

Leaving us, a little later, with beautiful woods, and more broken trees-


Normal April snow.  What is NOT normal about this storm is the wind that is following it- April storms don't work that way...  

video

The kind of thing that breaks even healthy trees.  Radical temperature swings continue- down to +9 last night; going to -5°F next night- and up to near +40°F by next week.  Really, really not normal here.

AND - in case your lust for doom is not yet sated; have you heard about the immense chunk of Antarctic ice that is going to break loose any day now?  The one- the size of Delaware, and 1,100 feet thick?  

The part about "things could be worse!" ?  Count on it; they will be worse in the decades ahead.  100% of everything points that way; no, magic technology is not going to fix this.

If you currently live on a flood plain- or a sea coast - seriously; find a way to move your family elsewhere, and right now.  While you can still find climate change deniers to sell to...

Depressing.  Yes it is.  Hang in there.  Anyway.  

Saturday, August 6, 2016

A little "social media" request........

As a few old-timers here may know, I spend just a little time "commenting" on news stories in the major media; The New York Times, The Washington Post, sometimes Huffpo and others.

If, and when, I have something to say, and if and when I think someone might actually listen.

I have a little request for you - which might make a difference.  We all know that "economists" couldn't predict their way out of a wet paper bag - but people still keep asking them what to think.  Mind boggling.

Right this very minute - the New York Times has a nice feature pointing out that the entire world has entered a "slow growth" phase.  And that the "forecasters" once again didn't see it coming; and still persist in saying growth will resume very soon.  We base our fiscal "policy" on these fantasies.

I made a comment.  At the moment, to my surprise, it's running high in the readers "Readers' Picks"; about 6th in the list.

Basically it says "this is what ecologists have always predicted - and here we are."

The vast majority of the commenters add ideas and theories from "economics".  All beautifully explanatory and contradictory - and authoritative.  Despite never having accurately predicted anything.

You know - I think it just MIGHT make a difference if a bunch of the readers here added their recommendations - and bumped that comment up in the list.  Perhaps a few more people might notice "- hm - economists' predictions never work out - ecologists' predictions usually do..."

I think that would actually be progress.  Give it a try!  Can't hurt - might help.

Tuesday, July 19, 2016

What Ice Wall? Phase 2

Entire post from NHK below- with not one single mention of the ice wall.  Instead- the regulators think TEPCO really should DO something about the problem - since - they haven't.  They are doing a study, though!  Thank goodness.  Oh, and this press release points out they are still pumping water into the melted down reactors to cool them.  And the water then goes - where?  They're not sure.

"TEPCO urged to cut risk of radioactive water leak

"Japan's nuclear regulator has urged the operator of the crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant to reduce the risk of leaking of highly radioactive water from the facility into the sea, in case of another tsunami.

"About 60,000 tons of such water is believed to have pooled in reactor buildings at the plant. The operator, Tokyo Electric Power Company, or TEPCO, is injecting water into the buildings to cool melted nuclear fuel, and groundwater is flowing into their basements.

"The Nuclear Regulation Authority instructed TEPCO at a meeting on Tuesday to urgently study measures to lower the amount and radiation levels of the water.

"The authority proposed 2 measures to TEPCO. One is building more tanks to store the water, even though the plant has about one thousand tanks. The other is treating the water using a system designed to filter out radioactive material, and circulating the water in a cooling system.

"NRA member Toyoshi Fuketa said the utility cannot keep the water in the buildings forever. He said TEPCO should handle the water problem either along with that of other radioactive water or first of all.

"Following the NRA's instruction, TEPCO is to report the results of its study at a meeting next month or later."

Monday, July 18, 2016

The Whole Truth About "Economics".

Buckle up.  Exactly how often these days do you have a chance at "the whole truth"??  But here it is.

A couple days ago, Ilargi over at The Automatic Earth posted a cartooned short lecture from "legendary economist Ha-Joon Chang" on - Economics.

Back in the dark ages of blogging, around 2008-2010, when I was posting frequently, I tracked the "rank" of my blog using the now extinct Technorati statistics.  I was pleased when I eventually ranked up in the top 4% (as high as I got, but darn good) - but surprised to find that their measure of my "authority"; a statistic I don't understand at all, had me ranked pretty high for ecology - but higher for economics.  What? A surprise to me; though both fields have the same Greek root in oikos, house, they notoriously don't talk much.

Apparently though, if you are trained in the study of resources, their uses, values, and flows - it becomes easy to notice when Economists are talking total nonsense.  Which is often/always; as every study has always shown.  Look up 'monkeys are smarter than investors" if you want to get into that topic.  Ha-Joon Chang has noticed the nonsense from inside the field - a considerable recommendation.  Take a look; not while you're distracted, because between the ironic narration and the double-entendre animations, this is packed tight:



Then; if you have the urge; take the time to search this blog right here for the simple word "economics".  You'll find I made many of the exact same statements about economics and economists, years ago.  Alas that I can't claim to be a legendary economist, though.  (No disparagement of Chang intended, I actually think he is truly brilliant - and speaks the truth.)

And the Moral Of The Story: according to both a legendary economist and Greenpa; Economics is a meaningless field of study.  Really.